Will Phil predict six more weeks of wintry weather? Does our own forecast agree? See weather predictions for February’s numerous notable dates, including the Super Bowl and Valentine’s Day!
February 2024 Weather Predictions
Phil Says “Spring is Coming!”
On Groundhog Day, February 2, snow showers and chill may cause Punxsutawney Phil to be reluctant to emerge from his tree stump in Pennsylvania. When he eventually appears, the large rodent is unlikely to see his shadow, in which case, according to legend, there will be an early end to winter.
Snow will also make for shadowless skies from North Carolina across the Appalachians and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys; through the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest, Heartland, Oklahoma; and on into the High Plains and New Mexico. Rain will provide similar sky conditions across Georgia and Florida, along the Gulf Coast into Texas, and across Hawaii. Elsewhere, sunshine will promote shadows.
Across Canada, sunshine will cast shadows from western portions of Atlantic Canada through southern Quebec, in southwestern Ontario, and from the western Prairies through southern British Columbia, while in other areas, snow or rain will ward off groundhog shadows.
According to our long-range forecasts, February temperatures will be cooler than normal across much of the United States, from the Atlantic Coast westward through the Mississippi Valley into the High Plains and across western Hawaii. Temperatures will be near to above normal from the Intermountain West to the Pacific Coast, across Alaska, and eastern portions of Hawaii.
Precipitation will be above normal over southern Florida and the western portion of the Southeast, from the Intermountain West through the Desert Southwest, and westward across much of California; it will be near to below normal in other areas.
Across Canada, February temperatures will be below normal from Atlantic Canada westward through the Prairies and near to above normal elsewhere. Precipitation will be above normal over eastern portions of Atlantic Canada, as well as across the Prairies and southern British Columbia; it will be near to below normal elsewhere.
A Wet Super Bowl Sunday
Super Bowl Sunday takes place on February 9 at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. Those planning to tailgate will want to keep rain gear handy as rain showers pass through. Snowfall and a shot of cold air could alter travel plans from New England through New Jersey and westward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
→ The Super Bowl gridiron has been graced by wild weather over the years. Check out some of the most interesting Super Bowl Weather Records!
Cuddle Up for Valentine’s Day!
On February 14, Valentine’s Day, it will be sunny and mild for lovebirds heading out and about from New England southward through Virginia, across Florida and the Gulf Coast through Texas and Oklahoma, and across eastern Hawaii. Rain, snow, or chill will inspire indoor plans in other parts of the country. In Canada, snow and/or rain will foil outdoor dates across the southern portion of the country, from Atlantic Canada to the western coast.
Presidential Prognostications
Presidents’ Day, February 17, will be sunny with above-normal temperatures for outdoor plans in Jefferson, Georgia; Madison County, Florida; Jackson, Mississippi; Roosevelt, Oklahoma; Washington County, Colorado; Lincoln County, Wyoming; Franklin County, Idaho; Fillmore, Utah; and Coolidge, Arizona. Expect snow showers in Quincy, Massachusetts; Jefferson County, Pennsylvania; Jackson County, Michigan; and Lincoln County, Missouri.
February 17 is also Family Day in parts of Canada, where it will be cold and snowy from Atlantic Canada across southern Quebec and southwestern Ontario, while rain showers will persist in southeastern Ontario. Elsewhere, skies will be sunny and clear, and it will be very cold across the Northwest Territories.
What About the Rest of Winter?
Important factors for the later portion of the winter include an expected weak La Niña, a negative PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), and a positive AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation). (Oscillations are linked ocean-atmosphere patterns that influence the weather over periods of weeks to years.) Another factor is the combination of high solar activity (the highest since the early 2000s) as we head toward a solar maximum and a westerly Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO, an index measuring stratospheric winds near the equator), which indicates the potential for some cold shots, especially in later winter.
For more about the weather, pick up your copy of The 2025 Old Farmer’s Almanac!