Groundhog Day 2025: Will Punxsutawney Phil See His Shadow?

Will the Groundhog See His Shadow in 2025?

According to The Old Farmer’s Almanac long-range weather forecast, February 2, 2025, will bring snow showers and cold temperatures in Punxsutawney, PA, home of a most famous groundhog. (Indeed, this forecast is accurate.)

We’re talking about Punxsutawney Phil, Seer of Seers, Sage of Sages, and Weather Prognosticator Extraordinary. According to the folks in Punxsutawney, Phil saw his shadow, predicting six more weeks of winter. 

• According to weather lore, if it’s a clear or sunny day, the groundhog will see its shadow and return to its underground home. This means six more weeks of bad wintry weather.
• The plump prognosticator will not see his shadow if it’s a cloudy or snowy day. This means early spring weather is right around the corner.

That prediction is a little surprising since a cloudy day should mean that Punxsutawney Phil would NOT see his shadow.  Of course, it’s all in good humor. As the folks in Punxsutawney say, it’s “A day to take everything a little less seriously and break up the winter monotony… at least for a little while!”

In winter, clear skies often lead to colder temperatures. (There’s no cloud cover to trap the Sun’s heat close to the Earth’s surface.) Think of the shadow as a metaphor for the “strength” of winter. Of course, modern meteorology doesn’t use shadows to predict the weather, but it’s fun to hold onto some of those old traditions.

What’s in store for YOUR spring? See the Almanac’s Spring 2025 Weather Forecast.

When is Groundhog Day?

Groundhog Day, celebrated every year on February 2, is an unusual holiday that stretches back hundreds of years to European traditions and ancient times.

Why this date in midwinter? Groundhog Day stems from an ancient Celtic celebration called Imbolc, which is something called a cross-quarter day. (Read more about that below!)

This calendar is rooted in astronomy—and the movement of the Earth around the Sun. In the Northern Hemisphere, this date marks the midpoint between the winter solstice in December and the spring equinox in March. 

How is Groundhog Day Celebrated?

Groundhog Day is a quirky holiday celebrated in the United States and Canada and a fun way to break up the winter season and look forward to spring. It’s based on the belief that some animals can sense seasonal changes, and their hibernation patterns will indicate the coming weather.

In this case, if the marmot emerges from his burrow and sees its shadow, he hurries back to his hole, and there will be six more weeks of winter. If it doesn’t see its shadow, spring will come early.

The tradition originated in Germany and was brought to the United States by early settlers. Probably the most famous groundhog, Phil, is from western Pennsylvania. (Yes, there are other groundhog celebrities, such as the one in Sun Prairie, Wisconsin.) 

This Pennsylvania groundhog is amusingly known as “Punxsutawney Phil, Seer of Seers, Sage of Sages, Prognosticator of Prognosticators, and Weather-Prophet Extraordinary.” Phil was named by the “Punxsutawney Groundhog Club” in 1887, the same year they declared Punxsutawney the weather capital of the world.

Every February 2, the “faithful followers of Phil” gather early in the morning to watch Phil emerge from his burrow. His “prediction” is announced to the crowd, and it’s typically met with lots of excitement.

According to NOAA, Punxsutawney Phil has accurately predicted the coming of spring 40% of the time. That’s not exactly an excellent track record. (Our guess is that “Phil” isn’t naturally emerging from his borrow to the paparazzi cameras.)

What is the Meaning Behind Groundhog Day?

Imbolc Origins

Originally, Groundhog Day was a Celtic festival marking the year’s first cross-quarter day, or a midpoint between seasons. Read more about the ancient Celtic calendar here.

Celebrated at the beginning of February, the day was called Imbolc—a term from Old Irish that is most often translated as “in the belly”—a reference to the soon-to-arrive lambs of spring. The celebration of Imbolc signaled that the Sun was halfway through its advance towards the spring equinox, and the season of new birth and light was on the horizon.

This day has also been called St. Brigid’s Day, which stems from a mixing of figures and traditions from pagan and Christian beliefs. The Celtic goddess Brigantia is associated with dawn, light, and spring, which are qualities later associated with Brigid of Kildare, a Christian saint (and one of Ireland’s patron saints).

Candlemas

Although distinct from Imbolc, the Christian festival of light Candlemas is also observed at this time of year (February 2). The name refers to the candles lit that day in churches, which celebrate the presentation of the Christ Child in the temple of Jerusalem. 

If Candlemas be fair and bright,
Come, Winter, have another flight;
If Candlemas brings clouds and rain,
Go Winter, and come not again.

Groundhog Day has a rich history based on a deeper meaning; it speaks to the triumph of spring over winter—and birth over death. Again, note the appearance of light over dark with the appearance of candles and dawn—and, of course, the spiritual light of a holier presence. 

Why Use a Groundhog?

So, how does the groundhog fit into this ancient festival? Historically, a groundhog wasn’t the animal of choice: a bear brought the forecast to the people of France and England, while those in Germany looked to a badger for a sign. 

In the 1800s, German immigrants to Pennsylvania brought their Candlemas legends with them. Finding no badgers but lots of groundhogs (also called woodchucks or whistle pigs), they adopted the New World species to fit the lore.

Today, that lore has grown into fun winter festivals, with Punxsutawney Phil and furry fellows in other states presiding.

What Is Groundhog Day’s Connection to Weather?

Since the traditional celebration anticipated the planting of crops, a central focus of the festivities was the forecasting of either an early spring or a lingering winter.

Sunshine on Candlemas was said to indicate the return of winter. Similarly…

When the wind’s in the east on Candlemas Day,
There it will stick till the 2nd of May.

• It was not held as a good omen if the day itself was bright and sunny, for that betokened snow and frost to continue hiring the laborers 6 weeks later on Lady Day.
• If it were cloudy and dark, warmth and rain would thaw the fields and prepare them for planting.

Our Groundhog Day is a remote survivor of that belief. Though we recognize animal behavior isn’t the only way to judge planting dates, the tradition continues, often with a wink and a smile. 

Here at The Old Farmer’s Almanac, we say, “If the groundhog sees his shadow, we’ll have six more weeks of winter; if he doesn’t, it’ll be six weeks until spring.” Get it?

Want to see more accurate planting dates? Check out our Planting Calendar to find dates for starting seeds, transplanting, and harvesting in your area.

Groundhog Day and Candlemas Lore

If Candlemas [February 2] be mild and gay,
Go saddle your horses and buy them hay;
But if Candlemas be stormy and black,
It carries the winter away on its back.

Just half your wood and half your hay,
Should be remaining on Candlemas Day. 

On Candlemas Day,
The good goose begins to lay.

When the wind’s in the east on Candlemas Day,
There it will stick till the 2nd of May.

On Candlemas Day, if the thorns hang a drop,
You are sure of a good pea crop.

More About Groundhogs!

What exactly IS a groundhog? Also known as a woodchuck or whistle pig, the groundhog typically makes its home in the brambles and thickets that grow where forests meet fields. There, it digs burrows between 4 and 6 feet deep and up to 40 feet long—removing as much as 700 pounds of dirt in the process. 

Like its squirrel relatives, the groundhog eats leaves, grass, flowers, bark, and twigs, climbing trees to reach tender buds or fruit. This furry animal will also go after almost any crop, favoring beans, peas, and carrot tops. It may even take a bite out of every squash or pumpkin in a row instead of consuming just one. See how to deter groundhogs in the garden.

But the mischief-maker is not all nuisance. Its burrows allow air and water to penetrate the soil, and when abandoned, they become homes for opossums and other small animals. The groundhog serves food for larger creatures, such as bobcats, foxes, and wolves.

With hungry predators on the prowl, it takes courage for a groundhog to emerge from its hole every February to make its forecast. It must take its job very seriously!

What’s the Difference Between a Groundhog and a Woodchuck?

Every year, we’re asked if a groundhog is the same as a woodchuck. Yup. There’s no difference (taxonomically). It’s the same burrowing rodent, Marmota monax. The word you use is more of a reflection of where you live. In cold New England, where we can pretty much count on wintry weather no matter what the marmot thinks, the term “woodchuck” is often used. The word comes from the Algonquin name is wejack or wuchak. What do you call it?

What’s the Weather Forecast?

For a forecast more than folklore, see the Almanac’s long-range predictions (traditionally 80% accurate) or your 5-day weather forecast!