How We Did With Last Year's Winter Predictions
Just how accurate is The Old Farmer’s Almanac in forecasting the weather? Here is our report regarding the Almanac’s accuracy in forecasting last year’s winter. It was a season of abnormal weather patterns!
The 2025 Old Farmer’s Almanac (available everywhere on August 29, 2024!) features the below information along with temperature and precipitation forecasts versus actuals for representative cities in each region.
How Accurate Is The Old Farmer’s Almanac Forecast Overall?
Although neither we nor any other forecasters have as yet gained sufficient insight into the mysteries of the universe to predict the weather with total accuracy, we correctly predict the weather about 80% of the time.
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Keep in mind that the way we measure long-range seasonal predictions is different than your daily weather meteorologist. The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts weather trends and events by comparing solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity. Our extended winter weather forecasts emphasize temperature and precipitation deviations from averages, or normals. These are based on 30-year statistical averages prepared by government meteorological agencies.
How Accurate Was the 2023–2024 Winter Forecast?
Our accuracy in forecasting the direction of precipitation departure from normal for a representative city in each region was 83.3%. Our anomalous forecast for a very wet winter in the Atlantic Corridor was very accurate.
Overall, our accuracy rate in forecasting the direction of temperature departure for a representative city in each region was 44.4%.
- Our warmer-than-normal temperature forecast was accurate along the East and Gulf Coast.
- Elsewhere, while a polar vortex did visit much of the country in mid-January, warmth dominated the weather from coast to coast.
This makes last winter’s total accuracy rate 64%, slightly below our traditional average rate of 80%, a reflection of how abnormal recent weather patterns have been.
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Last winter was a season of snowfall extremes:
- Our forecast for above-normal snowfall was correct in portions of the Intermountain West, the mountains of California, and an area from the central Plains into the Tennessee Valley.
- Despite the abundance of precipitation in the Northeast, the constant warmth meant a lot more rain than snow, which itself led to below-normal snowfall
- Our snowy forecast for southern Alaska was indeed on target, as Anchorage had one of its snowiest winters on record, and Juneau saw its snowiest January ever— with more than 76 inches of snow in that month alone.
On average, our actual winter precipitation results for top cities differed from our forecasts by 0.44 inches.
How We Make Our Forecast
How do we make our long-range predictions? We derive our weather forecasts from a secret formula that was devised by the founder of this Almanac, Robert B. Thomas, in 1792. Thomas believed that weather on Earth was influenced by sunspots, which are magnetic storms on the surface of the Sun.
Some individuals doubt that the amount of energy emitted by the sun has any impact on the atmosphere, weather, and climate. However, we belong to the group that believes otherwise. We base our beliefs on the fields of solar science, which studies sunspots, climatology, which examines weather patterns, and meteorology, which focuses on the atmosphere.
Of course, our exact formula is proprietary. But also rest assured that the meteorological technology and methods are continually updated. While the forecasts are based on the same principles, we use the latest state-of-the-art satellite data, all the latest technology and equipment. Read more about how The Old Farmer’s Almanac predicts the weather.
What Does the 2025 Almanac Say About This Winter?
How cold and snowy will this winter be? For specifics on snowfall and temperatures in your region, pick up The 2025 Old Farmer’s Almanac—while copies are available!
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Last time NYC had a decent snow in Christmas eve was 1966 which I remember and still waiting for it to happen again
When I was growing up, my parents (both of whom where highly cynical) told me that the information in the Almanac was just made up, that no one could forecast that far ahead. So I spend one whole year at one point comparing the actual weather to what the Almanac said. It was spot-on, every single day. I did it again this year, and so far have gotten the same results. Frank Field could have used your meteorologists back in 1970! (Touted as NBC News' "crack meteorologist," he forecast "light flurries" for NYC that January. As it turned out, however, the storm dumped a couple of feet of snow on the city, paralyzing it for several days. After that, New Yorkers took to calling him the "cracked" meteorologist.)
Thank you, Jake, for sharing that story—and for your dedication to the Almanac! We appreciate it!
2 books i look for answers are
KJV Bible and
The Farmers Almanac!
when you think about it,
70 to 80% accuracy for the
entire year beats 7 days advance
weather notice from other sources.
In spite of the untold billions of dollar
weather forecasters invested, they
still can't always long range predict things as
accurately as TFA! They always have
to fall back on radar for the minute
by minute action. But TFA isn't afraid
to go out on the limb! And TFA doesn't
pull the "presume we know it all" as you
will see time and again with your favorite
news program weather portion.
Want to invest in 2 must have books?
Think Bible and The Farmers Almanac!
Why is 2021 still active? Shouldn't 2022 be active?
Hi Sandra, In The 2022 Old Farmer’s Almanac, we report on how accurate we predicted the weather the prior winter (so, winter of 2020–2021). If you are looking for this coming season’s predictions (2021–2022), they are available in the new edition on sale now. You can also find the general winter summary here: www.Almanac.com/winter
this sucks last winter we in the north east philadelphia did not have a winter ...it should be 20 below here around Sept/Oct/Dec what we get 70 to 80 degree temps this is not cally we got no snow no cold ...that is not the way it should be...hope this almanac is wrong this year and we here in philly get record cold maybe 14 to 20 inch snow storms freezing artic tempertures not summer give us real winter
Most of the projections for the Lower Lakes were close to the mark, although August turned out to be a near oven with quite not enough rain. Almost had to go buy jelly beans, unshelled peanuts and a spray bottle for water and go outside and yell, "Rain, willya?" at the sky gods, but then that derecho went through here and did so much damage. 15 tornadoes - almost a swarm occurred.
National Weather Service is predicting cooler weather and some rain in a couple of days, right in keeping with your September forecast.
Note: last year, the first snow was on Hallowe'en and no one in my neighborhood went trick-or-treating. I have photos, measured 4 inches on my front steps, where I feed the birds. The last snow of winter was April 30, same as 2018. I don't know if it's significant, but the cold weather did not really turn summery until after July 25. Butterfly and dragonfly count seems to be down in some areas, if that's significant.
I thought your predictions were pretty close to what we had. It was warmer than normal (what's normal?) and we had very little snow. In late Dec. I turned the heat down and opened windows.
We had a quick, wet spring which preceded a very hot/humid June/July and beginning of August. It started to cool down a bit after the first tropical storm, which dumped around 8 inches of rain in a few hours.
Hi, Diane,
Thank you for taking the time to let us know how the forecast worked out in your area.
As for what’s normal—good question; many people wonder. Here’s the answer:
When you read the weather predictions in this Almanac (or listen to any TV or radio forecast), you may notice the terms “normal” or “average” used to compare current traditions.
Most of us may think of the weather last year or in recent history. However, averages are based on 30-year periods prepared by government meteorological agencies and updated every 10 years. The most recent tabulations span the period 1981 through 2010. Before that, the base period used by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)—based in Asheville, North Carolina—was 1971 through 2000. This involves sweeping up the period’s daily temperature, precipitation, and other weather information from more than 7,000 weather stations around the country and computing new statistics to be rolled out.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac forecasts “deviations from averages,” using the official 30-year normals for temperature and precipitation, averaging each of our designated regions. Technically, we use the normals rather than the averages. (Although the spline-curve modifications affect the daily normals, they have no discernable effect on the monthly normals that we use—so in this case, the normals and averages are actually the same.)
You can read more here: https://www.almanac.com/how-old-farmers-almanac-predicts-weather and watch an entertaining video about it.
Let’s hope that the coming seasons’ forecast is as accurate!
